SHFE tin fluctuates at highs, while LME tin inventory supports price resilience [SMM tin midday review]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract and Analysis of LME Tin Contract

​​Morning Session Trend​​: After a slight high open, the market consolidated in a range, closing at 268,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon session, down 0.64% from the previous day's settlement price.​​Key Support​​: The short-term support is formed at 266,000 yuan/mt (Yunnan smelting cost line), with resistance at 271,000 yuan/mt.

​​Open Interest Trend​​: Open interest in the most-traded contract fell to 31,400 lots, with bulls capitalizing on the supply tightness logic.

​​Overnight Close​​: Closed at $33,545/mt, up approximately 2% week-on-week, but technically pressured by the key resistance level of $34,000.

​​Obstacles to Resumption of Production in Myanmar's Wa Region​​: The repair rate of tunnels is less than 50%, and the rainy season, coupled with soaring costs of mining supplies, makes large-scale production resumption in Q3 unlikely.

​​Weakness in Traditional Sectors​​: Consumer electronics (mobile phones/PCs) are at the end of destocking, with solder purchases mainly in "small-batch restocking," and high prices suppressing speculative demand.

​​Domestic "19 Measures to Boost Consumption" policy implementation has increased expectations for liquidity easing; a weaker US dollar has boosted metal pricing. However, sticky inflation in Europe and the US constrains the Fed's interest rate cut space, and concerns about a semiconductor cycle peak are dragging down long-term tin consumption expectations.

​​Short-Term Strategy​​: Range-bound trading (SHFE tin 266,000–273,000 yuan), with a focus on downstream PV enterprises' stockpiling trends.

​​Medium-to-Long-Term Caution​​: Monitor the timing of production resumption in Wa Region (end of Q3) and the realization of consumption during the September-October peak season. If demand falls short of expectations, the price center may shift down to 250,000 yuan